Leumit Research InstituteThis calculator computes the probabilities of COVID-19 hospitalization and death following a positive SARS-CoV-2 result by PCR, according to patient risk factors and vaccination status. The model is based on the outcomes of Leumit Health Services insurees in Israel, vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccine. Pregnant individuals were excluded. Risk estimates may be less accurate for other vaccines, with novel variants, or for different ethnicities. This calculator is provided as is to use by clinically trained professionals, for academic research or for the purpose of peer review, with no guaranty.
Based on 139,554 COVID-19 episodes confirmed by PCR between April 1, 2020 and January 26, 2022.
Area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) for hospitalization: 0.889
Area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) for mortality risk: 0.966
Publication: COVID-19 severity prediction based on patient risk factors and number of vaccines received
Ariel Israel, Alejandro A. Schäffer, Eugene Merzon, Ilan Green, Eli Magen, Avivit Golan-Cohen, Shlomo Vinker, Eytan Ruppin
medRxiv 2021.12.31.21268575; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.31.21268575
© Copyright 2022, Leumit Health Services. v1.1 updated Jan 31, 2022.